Shermer bets $1,000 that aliens won't be confirmed by 2030
Michael Shermer, founder of the skeptical Skeptic magazine, has bet $1,000 with Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb that by the end of 2030 not a single American scientific organization will officially confirm the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence. The bet is also timely because the US government is currently releasing UAP files by the tens of thousands.
Michael Shermer, the founder and publisher of Skeptic magazine, has wagered $1,000 that the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology will not be officially confirmed by December 31, 2030. On the other side of the bet is Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb, who chairs the US government's new UAP Science Advisory Council. Under the terms, at least two of NASA, the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the American Astronomical Society would have to affirm the discovery of extraterrestrial intelligence, whether in the form of an extraterrestrial technological object or alien biological life found on Earth. The wager was recorded through the Long Now Foundation's Long Bets program, and the $1,000 stake will go to the Galileo Project Foundation regardless of the winner.
The bet came after US authorities, on the orders of President Donald Trump, began releasing one after another their files concerning UFOs, UAPs and extraterrestrial life. Under the program, the documents have so far been released in six tranches, the latest on September 18. According to reports, the database of about 155,000 unique pages drawn from material from seven countries contains no evidence that would clearly establish any case as being of extraterrestrial origin. The archive is large and contains many unresolved cases, but the released material has not proven that any of them is of extraterrestrial origin.
The UAP Science Advisory Council was established in June 2026 to provide the government with scientific advice on UAP investigations. The council is part of a broader governance structure connected to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the FBI and the Department of War. Alongside Loeb, the published roster includes retired Rear Adm. Tim Gallaudet, Stanford professor Garry Nolan, anthropologist Peter Skafish and Shermer himself, whose skeptical position is no secret.
What do we know, and what don't we?
The released records contain a few cases that are spectacular in themselves. In October 2023, federal law-enforcement agencies were monitoring drone activity near sensitive sites in the western part of the country when, according to reports, they saw fast lights merge into a bright orb; according to a Department of War memorandum, the agents observed "orbs launching other orbs." The existence of the document does not in itself reveal anything about what the objects were. The files also include material from a 1949 Los Alamos conference that examined green fireballs observed near nuclear research facilities, with the participation of physicist Edward Teller, without a definitive explanation. The historical review by AARO, the Pentagon's UAP investigation office, reaching back to 1945, came to a more restrained conclusion: it found no evidence that any government investigation, scientific study or official review had confirmed a UAP as extraterrestrial technology. According to the office, most sightings can be traced back to ordinary objects, natural phenomena or misidentification, and in some cases experimental human technology may also be a possibility. "AARO has found no verifiable evidence that any UAP sighting has represented extraterrestrial activity," Tim Phillips, the office's then acting director, said at a Department of War briefing in March 2024.
Not everyone considers the creation of the advisory council useful. Sean Kirkpatrick, the former director of AARO, criticized the formation of the council and Loeb's appointment; in his view, its composition suggests that the administration is turning toward fringe theories rather than hard science, and he called the initiative a needless waste of taxpayers' money. Loeb and the council's supporters, by contrast, argue that inadequate sensors, missing data and decades of secrecy have so far made analyzing such cases difficult; some released recordings lack the raw data that would allow an object's distance, speed or movement to be reliably determined.
According to the council, its work will be based on scientific analysis and higher-quality data, and the bet between Shermer and Loeb now gives this debate a concrete deadline. Until then, what remains is a large archive, a government emphasizing openness and a great many unexplained reports, but in none of the cases has it been proven that it is of extraterrestrial origin.
The sober take
According to AARO's historical review reaching back to 1945, most UAP reports can be traced back to ordinary objects, natural phenomena or misidentification, and in some cases experimental human technology may also be a possibility; according to the office, no verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial origin was found in any case.